Aiming Low on Global Warming
Japanese car manufacturers are the best. This is for a variety or reasons, but a major factor is the Kaizen approach, which is roughly structured as follows. First, target your biggest error (cost), once that is resolved, find your next biggest, once that is resolved, find your next, repeat until no errors remain in the production process. This recursive process of continuous improvement creates exponential benefits by saving money over and over again, but primarily it says: “Eat the low hanging fruit first”.
What if we applied this to global warming? Under Kyoto, the question is posed as follows, “How do we reduce carbon emissions?” I propose we change the question to, “How do we most effectively solve specific problems caused by global warming?” The answer, my friends, is rarely cutting carbon emissions.
In 2008, world economists and researches wrote the Copenhagen Consensus which outlined how to to most effectively tackle the worlds problems, in other words where is the biggest bang for the buck in helping the planet. The results in order of priority,
- Micronutrients
- Free Trade
- Immunization
- Agricultural R & D
and in 30th (last) place: Cut CO2 emissions.
A good example are polar bears, who have become an icon of the greenhouse gas struggle. In 1950, there were about 5 000 polar bears, today there are nearly 22 000. Despite these positive figures, polar bear populations are indeed threatened by reduced ice coverage. Yet, the likely benefits if ALL countries attained Kyoto protocol emissions (which is impossible) would be to save about 1 polar bear per year.
The icing on the cake is that at least 300 polar bears are shot by humans every year. So, to put it clearly, we could try to co-ordinate all the world’s nations to achieve Kyoto protocol at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars; or, we could stop shooting polar bears. Low hanging fruit anyone?
More resources:
A recent article in the IHTclearly outlines the high-cost and limited benefit of the EU Carbon Emissions Program.
Great TED talk by Bjorn Lormberg outlining these points:
And a longer talk on the same topic:
Other articles you might like:
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Comments
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2 Comments
Saturday December 13, 2008 @ 8:33 am
Checked out your blog this morning – a couple of comments on the latest
one:
-Why is biggest cost necessarily the lowest hanging fruit? It could
instead be the fruit WAY high up in the tree, hardest to reach but with
the greatest benefits if you get there.
-One of my earliest memories of you is you railing at the cowardice of
going for low-hanging fruit instead of aiming higher and being more
ambitious (STM proposal). Why the change?
-Why are mircronutrients so great?
-"Free trade" is a bit of a catch all, isn't it?
-Where are you going with the polar bears? Polar bears, though
emblematic, are such a tiny reason for working at slowing warming. I am
more concerned with rising sea levels (as are the inhabitants of several
south Pacific islands and all of New Orleans), decertification and crop
failure, and massive drought. Yes, we should stop shooting polar bears.
Is it futile to cut emissions? Maybe. Do we really know? What are the
repercussions for every other major world problem if we don't try to
tackle the one problem that will exacerbate all the rest? Then money
tossed at the low-hanging fruit will be the proverbial scooping the
drowning babies out of the water downstream of the baby producing factory.
thanks for making me think,
Erica
Saturday December 13, 2008 @ 8:35 am
I meant low hanging fruit in the sense of what can be done first and which has the biggest impact. If you start eating the low fruit, you get the energy to go after the next level.
Micronutrients, check out the copenhagen consensus. It gives people energy and health to be productive members of society which helps others become productive (via education, parenting…). It's all about compounding interest.
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